Predicting the 2019 NCAA Basketball National Champion

03/20/2019

Last season I gave you my prediction for the NCAA Championship and . . . I was wrong. In my defense, Purdue lost their best player in the first round of the tournament and struggled from that point on. Last year's prediction was based on solid research and analysis that had nothing to do with basketball and this year will see the same astute work.

Last year Purdue were my favorites because the last 4 champions had each recorded 8,7,5, and 4 loses. The only number missing in that sequence was a 6-loss team which happened to be Purdue heading into the NCAA Tournament. Basically abstract events that have no correlation to on-court success. 

This year sees some of the same solid research that surely won't backfire this time around.


The Virginia Cavaliers will be the 2019 NCAA Tournament Champions.


1. Since the 1999 NCAA Tournament (20 years ago), a number one seed has won the championship 14 times (excluding the vacated Louisville win). Number one seeds won 4 tournaments in a row from 2000 to 2003 and again from 2007 to 2010. All the other times number one seeds have won came with just one win in a row. 

Basically, if a number one seed wins more than one tournament in a row, they will win four tournaments in a row. The last two tournaments have been won by number one seeds in North Carolina in 2017 and Villanova in 2018 soo . . . the next two tournaments will also be won by a #1 seed.

2. Over the last decade (excluding Louisville once again), a team from the South Region has won 6 of the last 9 tournaments. This means the South has won two out of every three tournaments. Considering Villanova won from the East Region last season, this season a champion will come from the South once again.

This means the NCAA Champion will be the number one seed from the South Region. For some icing on the cake, the third win in the streak of four has been the ACC regular season champion. North Carolina in 2009 and Duke in 2001. Virginia won the ACC regular season championship.

So according to the numbers that have nothing to do with basketball, Virginia will win the NCAA Championship and will probably play one of the Michigan schools in the final game.


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