Predicting the 2024 March Madness National Champion

03/19/2024

Guys, I am devastated. I let you all down last year. It was right under my nose that UConn would win the championship, but I missed it due to poor data collection. I began last year's prediction by saying a team with eight losses would win March Madness, and in listing all the teams that qualified, I somehow missed that UConn also had eight. Embarrassing. That should make you trust me more though, how many other people could have correctly told you an eight loss team would win the NCAA tournament?

But enough of that. That was last year, this is this year, and I am back and locked all the way in to make amends.

Before telling you this year's champion, I am sure some of you are new and are wondering why you should trust my prediction. Well, according to some theory I learned in business school that I have long forgotten, one way to prove yourself is by listing your credentials. 

And in this case, if you read my explanations for why my March Madness streak is actually near-flawless, you will see that you have no option but to trust me:

2018: This was my first attempt, I was a wee boy, a college Junior still learning the ways of this world and distracted by the trappings of campus life, I was wrong in choosing Purdue. So, of course, I get a mulligan due to my youth.

2019: I correctly predicted Virginia would win it all. Shoutout to Kyle Guy, wherever he is, for an amazing name and tournament run to give me my first correct prediction.

2020: I said Dayton would win it all. And since the tournament never happened, I am def claiming credit for this because you can't prove I would have been wrong. Two in a row. Bank it.

2021: I was correct on the seed just got the region wrong. But this was at the height of COVID-19, and none of us were in our right minds, so I'll take half credit and another mulligan. Thank you for your kind generosity.

2022: We don't talk about 2022. But, fine, you could say I finally got one wrong, although I think it is because of the negative energy many of you brought to my predictions. Still makes me 2 and 1 in my books.

2023: A man now, I will correct the wrongs from 2023 by giving you the right team for 2024.

And if my explanations read like gaslighting, one, I wouldn't possibly do that to you- I promise I am simply telling you the truth, and two, whew, I hope you get out of that relationship where you learned to recognize those tactics.

Finally, thanks to my hours of analysis that have nothing to do with any of the basketball played this season, I give you my winner.


The Connecticut Huskies will be the 2024 NCAA Tournament Champions

Lucky number 13

Let's start with the obvious. Why do I think UConn will repeat when a team has only done so twice in 38 years? Easy, there were 13 NCAA tournaments between Duke repeating in 1991-92 and when Florida did so in 06-07. And with the 2020 tournament canceled, plus the NCAA voiding the 2013 championship due to the Louisville cheating scandal, there will have been 13 tournaments between that Florida run and this UConn repeat.

You're the only four for me.

2004 champion: UConn

2014 champion: UConn

2024 Champion:?

Hopefully, you see what I'm getting at, and if not, I am afraid your math education may have failed you.

IT'S MY TURN!

Channeling the legacy of the viral Skip Bayless meme, it is time for the East Region to produce a winner. Since the 2020 season reset the plate, the South, Midwest, and West regions have had one champion. That means the East is next to round out the cycle.

To be Nineteen Again

When three loss UConn wins this title, the total losses between the last four champions will add up to 19. The four preceding also added up to 19, as did the four champions before that.

Bonus:

And as a lil bonus, a lil desert, a lil parting gift, consider that 91 Duke was a 2 seed before repeating as a 1 seed the following season, then 06 Florida was a 3 seed before repeating as a 1 seed, revealing the latest number in the cycle will be a four seed repeating as a 1 seed, which is what we have with UConn.

So, according to the numbers that have nothing to do with basketball, Connecticut will win the NCAA Championship and will probably play Duke or Kansas in the final.


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