Predicting the 2025 March Madness National Champion

03/19/2025

Before you fill out that bracket, I am here to tell you who will win March Madness. Do you want bragging rights among your coworkers? Prove to your friend group that you are THE sports guru? Impress that girl that you have incorrectly assumed cares about how well your bracket did? This is the place for you.

I am far-far too humble to boast, but my impressive record speaks for itself. I gave you UConn as the champion last year, and dating back to 2018, I have basically correctly predicted every March Madness champion. And I know what you're thinking, "basically" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. To which I respond, one, don't be a hater, let me cook, and two, you will agree once the proper context is applied.

  • 2018: Yes, I was wrong in my very first attempt. Sue me. I was a young man, hairline intact, new to the ways of the world. So, by that caveat and the "first one is free" ruling, this does not count against my record.
  • 2019: I gave you Virginia as the champion, and guess what, Virginia won. This was where I proved to be "Himothy" as the kids would say, a fitting moniker considering Kyle Guy won Final Four MVP that year.
  • 2020: I predicted Dayton would win before the global pandemic collectively rained on all of our parades. And since you can't prove I was wrong, this is a correct prediction in my books.
  • 2021: The seed I gave you was correct, but the region was wrong. That should count for half credit, especially considering I caught Covid a few months before so I was not in my right mind.
  • 2022: Hands up, you caught me fair and square. I was wrong. I charge this one to the game and the negative energy many of you brought to the table, muddying the waters of my crystal ball.
  • 2023: Procrastination was the enemy here. While I correctly isolated that an 8-loss team would be the champions, my frantic last-minute research saw me overlook UConn as fitting the criteria.
  • 2024: Him. Talk to me nice. Another one. The LeBron James of March Madness predictions. The bracket GOAT.

2025: Now much wiser, evidenced by my receding hairline pushing me closer to baldness than ever, I am a seasoned veteran who has mastered his art form, ready to give you another accurate prediction on who will win the NCAA tournament based on my research that has nothing to do with basketball.


The Florida Gators will be the 2025 NCAA Tournament Champions

Back to Back to One

UConn joined Florida and Duke as the only institutions to win back-to-back championships in the 64-team era. On each occasion, the next champion was a No. 1 seed in their region. That tells us this year's winner will be one of the No. 1 seeds. That narrows our options to Duke, Florida, Houston, and Auburn.

From the 5 to the 4

In each 21st-century year ending with the number 5, the March Madness winner has finished the season with four losses. Isolating what we have tells us the 2025 winner would be a No. 1 seed who has already lost four games. That brings us to Florida and Houston.

Back to Back to Four

Continuing from the previous trend, while the winner to follow a back-to-back champion has always been a regional #1 seed, that team has also been the overall #4 seed for the tournament. Who is the overall four-seed for this tournament? The Florida Gators.

A 36th time for Everything

If that is not enough, consider that the last time a program won back-to-back titles, Kansas immediately followed as the first team to win 37 games and a national championship. If that phenomenon repeats, the latest champion will produce a unique, never-before-seen number of wins. Well, since the 64-team expansion in 1985, no team has ever won 36 games and a national championship- the exact number Florida would need to win the title.

Bonus

A lil bonus is I was visited by a friend from Florida out of the blue just as my analysis was finished. I also had gator bites for the first time recently. That is a pretty strong omen I must say.

So, according to the numbers that have nothing to do with basketball, Florida will win the NCAA Championship and will probably play Duke or Houston in the final.


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